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How do we come up with these numbers?

Total Population

According to the latest Philippine Statistics Authority data released last March 28, 2021, the projected population of the Philippines as of July 1, 2021 is 110,198,654.

Number of Filipinos Fully Vaccinated

This is the total number of Filipinos fully vaccinated, taking into account the number of required doses per vaccine type. For example, Sinovac and AstraZeneca vaccines require two doses to provide full protection against COVID-19, while Johnson & Johnson's only require one dose.

These numbers are taken from Department of Health & National Task Force Against COVID-19's regular vaccine rollout updates. See "Sources" section below for links.

Average Daily Vaccination Rates

The daily vaccination rate is a 7-day moving average, i.e. how many doses are being administered daily, on average, in the last 7 days.

These numbers are taken from OurWorldInData's vaccination data. The methodology used is explained here, and an example calculation can be found here.

Herd Immunity Target

To achieve herd immunity, Vaccine czar Carlito Galvez Jr. said they are aiming to vaccinate 70% of the population, or about 70 million Filipinos, by December 2021, in time for Christmas.

We will be basing all our herd immunity figures on this target.

Also, note that we do not take into account natural infection (i.e. individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 infection) towards the number of immune individuals. According to the World Health Organization:

"Attempts to reach ‘herd immunity’ through exposing people to a virus are scientifically problematic and unethical. [...] We are still learning about immunity to COVID-19. Most people who are infected with COVID-19 develop an immune response within the first few weeks, but we don’t know how strong or lasting that immune response is, or how it differs for different people. There have also been reports of people infected with COVID-19 for a second time."

Estimated Duration until Herd Immunity

We estimate the number of months/years left until we reach herd immunity based on the latest daily vaccination rate reported by DOH/NTF Against COVID-19, and how many more doses of vaccine are need to be administered to fully vaccinate 70M individuals.

At the moment, we assume that all individuals need to receive two doses of vaccines, as is required for all vaccine types that arrived in the Philippines so far. This may change once we receive 1-dose vaccines such as the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

We estimated the number of days left until herd immunity using the formula: [140 million doses - (total number of doses administered)] / latest daily vaccination rate.

Vaccination Rate Target

To estimate the target daily vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity by December 2021, we use: (# of remaining doses needed to be administered to fully vaccinate 70M) / number of days left until December 25, 2021.

Vaccine Supply

The total number of vaccine doses are taken from official DOH/NTF Against COVID-19 reports, from IATF live press briefings, or from various news outlets in the Philippines.

Some charts may refer to "vaccine supply" as the number of individuals that can be fully vaccinated based on the total supply of vaccines in the Philippines, taking into account the number of doses required to give full protection. For example, a combined supply of 1M Sinovac (2-dose) and 1M Johnson & Johnson (1-dose) vaccines would be enough to fully vaccinate 1.5M individuals.

DOH's Monthly Goal to ramp up vaccination

To achieve DOH's goal of achieving herd immunity by December 2021, Vaccine czar Carlito Galvez Jr. said they are planning to ramp up our vaccination rates from 500k per week, to up to 5M per week by December.

We keep track of our actual progress towards this goal through the "Vaccine Doses Administered per Month vs. DOH's Monthly Goal" bar chart.

To get the monthly target, we take the lower end of the weekly goals' ranges and multiply it by four (1 month = 4 weeks) e.g. for June-July's goal of 2M to 3M vaccinations per week, we plot an 8M per month (2M per week * 4 weeks) goal for those months in the bar chart.

DOH's Expected Vaccine Supply per month

This data is based on this timeline.

Vaccine Rollout in ASEAN Countries

This chart shows Philippines' ranking among ASEAN countries in terms of number of doses administered per 100 people in the total population of each country.

This data is taken from OurWorldInData.org's vaccination data, based on the latest available data for each country.

Daily Vaccinations

Vaccine Deliveries